Yesterday, forecasters with NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center and Climate Prediction Center announced a 30% chance of below-normal tropical cyclone activity for the upcoming central Pacific Hurricane Season. The 2025 outlook also indicates a 50% chance of a near-normal hurricane season and a 20% chance that it will be above-normal.

In terms of storm numbers, the forecast calls for 1-4 tropical cyclones across the central Pacific, which is located north of the equator between 140°W and the International Date Line. A near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones. Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

The outlook is a guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific basin and does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii.

The central Pacific hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through November 30.

Photo credit: NOAA Satellites